A study of the probable transmission routes of MERS-CoV during the first hospital outbreak in the Republic of Korea.
Identifieur interne : 000A79 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 000A78; suivant : 000A80A study of the probable transmission routes of MERS-CoV during the first hospital outbreak in the Republic of Korea.
Auteurs : S. Xiao [République populaire de Chine] ; Y. Li [République populaire de Chine] ; M. Sung [Corée du Sud] ; J. Wei [République populaire de Chine] ; Z. Yang [République populaire de Chine]Source :
- Indoor air [ 1600-0668 ] ; 2018.
Descripteurs français
- KwdFr :
- MESH :
English descriptors
- KwdEn :
- MESH :
- epidemiology : Coronavirus Infections, Republic of Korea.
- transmission : Coronavirus Infections.
- Computer Simulation, Disease Outbreaks, Humans, Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus, Models, Theoretical, Retrospective Studies.
Abstract
Infections caused by the Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) are a serious health issue due to their prevalence and associated mortality. However, the transmission routes of the virus remain unclear, and thus, the current recommended control strategies are not evidence based. In this study, we investigated the transmission routes of MERS-CoV during the first nosocomial outbreak in the Republic of Korea in May 2015 using a multi-agent modeling framework. We identified seven hypothesized transmission modes based on the three main transmission routes (long-range airborne, close contact, and fomite). The infection risks for each hypothesis were estimated using the multi-agent modeling framework. Least-squares fitting was conducted to compare the distribution of the predicted infection risk in the various scenarios with that of the reported attack rates and to identify the hypotheses with the best fit. In the scenarios in which the index patient was a super-spreader, our model simulations suggested that MERS-CoV probably spread via the long-range airborne route. However, it is possible that the index patient shed an average viral load comparable to the loads reported in the literature, and that transmission occurred via a combined long-range airborne and close contact route.
DOI: 10.1111/ina.12430
PubMed: 28960494
Affiliations:
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Xiao</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Department of Mechanical Engineering, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Mechanical Engineering, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Hong Kong</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Li, Y" sort="Li, Y" uniqKey="Li Y" first="Y" last="Li">Y. Li</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Department of Mechanical Engineering, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Mechanical Engineering, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Hong Kong</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Sung, M" sort="Sung, M" uniqKey="Sung M" first="M" last="Sung">M. 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Yang</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:affiliation>Guangzhou Institute of Respiratory Disease, First Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical College, Guangzhou, China.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>Guangzhou Institute of Respiratory Disease, First Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical College, Guangzhou</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">Jiangmen</settlement><region type="province">Guangdong</region></placeName></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Indoor air</title><idno type="eISSN">1600-0668</idno><imprint><date when="2018" type="published">2018</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass><keywords scheme="KwdEn" xml:lang="en"><term>Computer Simulation</term><term>Coronavirus Infections (epidemiology)</term><term>Coronavirus Infections (transmission)</term><term>Disease Outbreaks</term><term>Humans</term><term>Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus</term><term>Models, Theoretical</term><term>Republic of Korea (epidemiology)</term><term>Retrospective Studies</term></keywords><keywords scheme="KwdFr" xml:lang="fr"><term>Coronavirus du syndrome respiratoire du Moyen-Orient</term><term>Flambées de maladies</term><term>Humains</term><term>Infections à coronavirus (transmission)</term><term>Infections à coronavirus (épidémiologie)</term><term>Modèles théoriques</term><term>République de Corée (épidémiologie)</term><term>Simulation numérique</term><term>Études rétrospectives</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="epidemiology" xml:lang="en"><term>Coronavirus Infections</term><term>Republic of Korea</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="transmission" xml:lang="en"><term>Coronavirus Infections</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="épidémiologie" xml:lang="fr"><term>Infections à coronavirus</term><term>République de Corée</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="en"><term>Computer Simulation</term><term>Disease Outbreaks</term><term>Humans</term><term>Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus</term><term>Models, Theoretical</term><term>Retrospective Studies</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="fr"><term>Coronavirus du syndrome respiratoire du Moyen-Orient</term><term>Flambées de maladies</term><term>Humains</term><term>Modèles théoriques</term><term>Simulation numérique</term><term>Études rétrospectives</term></keywords></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">Infections caused by the Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) are a serious health issue due to their prevalence and associated mortality. However, the transmission routes of the virus remain unclear, and thus, the current recommended control strategies are not evidence based. In this study, we investigated the transmission routes of MERS-CoV during the first nosocomial outbreak in the Republic of Korea in May 2015 using a multi-agent modeling framework. We identified seven hypothesized transmission modes based on the three main transmission routes (long-range airborne, close contact, and fomite). The infection risks for each hypothesis were estimated using the multi-agent modeling framework. Least-squares fitting was conducted to compare the distribution of the predicted infection risk in the various scenarios with that of the reported attack rates and to identify the hypotheses with the best fit. In the scenarios in which the index patient was a super-spreader, our model simulations suggested that MERS-CoV probably spread via the long-range airborne route. However, it is possible that the index patient shed an average viral load comparable to the loads reported in the literature, and that transmission occurred via a combined long-range airborne and close contact route.</div></front></TEI><affiliations><list><country><li>Corée du Sud</li><li>République populaire de Chine</li></country><region><li>Guangdong</li><li>Région capitale de Séoul</li></region><settlement><li>Jiangmen</li><li>Séoul</li></settlement></list><tree><country name="République populaire de Chine"><noRegion><name sortKey="Xiao, S" sort="Xiao, S" uniqKey="Xiao S" first="S" last="Xiao">S. Xiao</name></noRegion><name sortKey="Li, Y" sort="Li, Y" uniqKey="Li Y" first="Y" last="Li">Y. Li</name><name sortKey="Wei, J" sort="Wei, J" uniqKey="Wei J" first="J" last="Wei">J. Wei</name><name sortKey="Yang, Z" sort="Yang, Z" uniqKey="Yang Z" first="Z" last="Yang">Z. Yang</name></country><country name="Corée du Sud"><region name="Région capitale de Séoul"><name sortKey="Sung, M" sort="Sung, M" uniqKey="Sung M" first="M" last="Sung">M. Sung</name></region></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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